# Do Science Fiction Writers Predict Future Science Fact?



## android654

While perusing one of my frequent youtube channels, I found an argument of author William Gibson (Neuromancer, Mona Lisa Overdrive, Johnny Mnemonic) and other writers like him were oracles of social and technological change several decades later.






Here's an interview with him in '97 about the rise of the internet and how it would be used now. He was right about this too.





For a brief summary, Gibson predicted the following years before they were made or made public.

-The internet
-cybernetic prosthesis
-SOPA, ACTA
-Cyberspace
-human/computer UI
-the popularity of "reality t.v."
-the rise of digital celebrities


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## bigtex1989

That is actually the job of science fiction writers. We have these fantastic artistic and imaginative minds that take these fantastic leaps, then you have these pragmatic minds that read it and make it happen. Think about the influence of Star Trek: TOS on the space program. And what influenced Gene Roddenberry? Some other science fiction writer.

P.S. One major problem I see with the advancing of science today is the lack of good science fiction writers.


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## bellisaurius

Robert heinlen had a list of predictions for the year 2000 that he made in 1952. I thought he did pretty well:

So let's have a few free-swinging predictions about the future. Some will be wrong - but cautious predictions are sure to be wrong.
1. *Interplanetary travel is waiting at your front door — C.O.D. It's yours when you pay for it*.(_OK, evey scifi writer thought that_)
2. *Contraception and control of disease is revising relations between the sexes to an extent that will change our entire social and economic structure*.(_Holy shit. Good one. But he was kind of sex obsessesed, so right up his alley_)
3. *The most important military fact of this century is that there is no way to repel an attack from outer space.* (_think asteroids..._)
4. *It is utterly impossible that the United States will start a "preventive war." We will fight when attacked, either directly or in a territory we have guaranteed to defend.* (_Ooops_)
5. *In fifteen years the housing shortage will be solved by a "breakthrough" into new technologies which will make every house now standing as obsolete as privies. *(_Nope, although we do currently have a housing glut_))
6. *We'll all be getting a little hungry by and by*.(_Nope_)
7. *The cult of the phony in art will disappear. So-called "modern art" will be discussed only by psychiatrists.*(_Hahahha_)
8. *Freud will be classed as a pre-scientific, intuitive pioneer and psychoanalysis will be replaced by a growing, changing "operational psychology" based on measurement and prediction.*(_Yup_)
9. *Cancer, the common cold, and tooth decay will all be conquered; the revolutionary new problem in medical research will be to accomplish "regeneration," i.e., to enable a man to grow a new leg, rather than fit him with an artificial limb.* (_not in 2000, anyway. Although the flu virus vaccine and chemo might count_)
10. *By the end of this century mankind will have explored this solar system, and the first ship intended to reach the nearest star will be a-building. *(_I'll give him 1/2 with voyager 2 and pioneer 10 leaving the solar system_)
11. *Your personal telephone will be small enough to carry in your handbag. Your house telephone will record messages, answer simple inquiries, and transmit vision*. (_Yup_)
12. *Intelligent life will be found on Mars.* (_nope_)
13. *A thousand miles an hour at a cent a mile will be commonplace; short hauls will be made in evacuated subways at extreme speed*. (_Nope, and supersonic travel seems obsolete with satellite communication_)
14. *A major objective of applied physics will be to control gravity.* (_Not quite_)
15. *We will not achieve a "World State" in the predictable future. Nevertheless, Communism will vanish from this planet. *(_Big time correct_)
16. *Increasing mobility will disenfranchise a majority of the population. About 1990 a constitutional amendment will do away with state lines while retaining the semblance.* (_Close. The federal government gets it through several supreme court decisions about the commerce clause_)
17. *All aircraft will be controlled by a giant radar net run on a continent-wide basis by a multiple electronic "brain."* (_Close. Think drones_)
18. *Fish and yeast will become our principal sources of proteins. Beef will be a luxury; lamb and mutton will disappear. *(_Lamb is remarkably less common, but really no_)
19. *Mankind will not destroy itself, nor will "Civilization" be destroyed.* (_Bing_)
Here are things we won't get soon, if ever:
— *Travel through time
— Travel faster than the speed of light
— "Radio" transmission of matter.
— Manlike robots with manlike reactions
— Laboratory creation of life
— Real understanding of what "thought" is and how it is related to matter.
— Scientific proof of personal survival after death.
— Nor a permanent end to war.*
(_All right_)

So, 9/19 on positive predictions, and all right on negative predictions.


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## cades

Well I mean as long as it is somewhat reasonable, assuming humans live on, they will created lots of things we make up eventually. The future will be some much better. I was born in the beginning of modernism. We haven't even contacted aliens (which assuming we live for millions of years is nearly a guaranteed thing). 

I would give up everything to live in the future lol.


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## Epherion

Yes and No. I think that sci-fi writers being the logic oriented people describe and environment where natural consequences happen based on the idea. When it happens in the real world it too follows the natural consequence of an action. Sometimes reality influences fiction as was the case with Verne and Wells.


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## wuliheron

Before there was science fiction there were myths like that of Vulcan, crippled god of the forge, who had two metal servants who helped him walk and who fashioned a variety of things including the winged helmet and sandals of Mercury. Myths and stories that stress the importance of science and craftsmanship still capture our imaginations today and inspire people to create new things whether or not they accurately predict the future.


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## Obsidean

bellisaurius said:


> 8. *Freud will be classed as a pre-scientific, intuitive pioneer and psychoanalysis will be replaced by a growing, changing "operational psychology" based on measurement and prediction.*(_Yup_)


I'm pretty sure this was already proven.


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## Giga Blender

Science fiction authors do their best to make intuitive leaps based on the technology they are familiar with and what they are currently aware of coming soon in theory. It does require a degree of intuition to successfully "predict" future science fact through science fiction and the ones who did it with the most success become tremendously famous for their insight looking back from the future. I think currently we're seeing a stagnation in science fiction because science and technology themselves are at a stage of approaching stagnation according to Moore's law. 

It is becoming near impossible to really comprehend the majority of what is being invented and developed for use in the next 20-40 years, let alone where those technologies will go in the next 200. Without a bright and dedicated mind trying hard to absorb all this information and then make predictions of what will come next we end up with what amounts to niche science fiction, specifically focusing on a single area of invention or science such as parallel universes and dimensions, teleportation, time travel, cloning, or robotics. 

While focusing on any one of these areas is sure to lead to a wealth of ideas which can be used as plot points, it is important to consider the wider spectrum and get a feel for how different areas of science will relate to each other. Doing so leads to much more believable, tangible science fiction which can be at least partially explained in the narrative and inspire people to pursue those ideas in real life.


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## Borrowed Lunacy

I have high hopes for blue space babes. Looking at you Mass Effect.


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## slender

Borrowed Lunacy said:


> I have high hopes for blue space babes. Looking at you Mass Effect.


im going to laugh when mass effect actually occurs. with the whole discovery, war, etc..


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## DMack

I think some authors like Jules Verne are likely ENTPs, perhaps INTPs and as such have high Perception and can look at their present day and see highly probable future paths. It doesn't mean that they create facts.


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## BlueSeven

I think they play around with their own hypothesis without the need for experimentation to make it a real theory, then when it is eventually logically made into a true theory it seems like they predicted it


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