# Compare 2000 with 2015, 2015 with 2030



## Elyasis

So glad to see a similar mind... particularly in regards to transhumanism and involuntary death. Although I am hopeful for a mostly biological solution instead of technological. Not convinced that a copy of your thought processes is really "you". It's more like a really advanced diary of you that starts writing it's own pages.


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## Amine

Elyasis said:


> So glad to see a similar mind... particularly in regards to transhumanism and involuntary death. Although I am hopeful for a mostly biological solution instead of technological. Not convinced that a copy of your thought processes is really "you". It's more like a really advanced diary of you that starts writing it's own pages.


Yay, similar minds! So rare to come by heh heh. Which sucks when one is so right!

I might have to agree with you about minduploading. I've never been convinced that it is possible. It may be, and I wouldn't ultimately be surprised, but yes, it may also be that your consciousness just doesn't get transferred like that. A solution to the Hard Problem of Consciousness is in order, first.

Nonetheless, the biological (perhaps enhanced by the nanotechnological) is rife with possibilities for all we seem to desire. I kind of believe, actually, that we will ultimately become brains-in-vats who predominantly live in VR while AI systems take full care of real reality. At a certain point they will be physically more dexterous than us in every way, and at that point we don't need to worry about physicality anymore unless we want to. So first we'll shut ourselves in to our rooms and connect in the new VR internet Avatar-like world of the imagination (but way better than Avatar), then we'll put our bodies in pods, then we'll just get rid of the body and have brains, then maybe we will determine whatever is functional about the brain and just keep and extend that. In a sense, maybe we'll get to mind uploading so gradually that it will never happen at any discrete point.

Because after all, our minds are already uploaded. What's the difference between one physical substrate and another? What I experience is _already virtual_. Every sensation is my mind's production.


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## Amine

The Internet Of Things Market Growth - Business Insider

-Everything will be "smart" (especially by 2030, this article only predicts *2018* lol - looks like I was being conservative, and I was).
-Things will begin to appear where you want them, when you want them.


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## Amine

Harris Interactive: Harris Polls > Americans’ Belief in God, Miracles and Heaven Declines

_Massive_ fall in religion in the last decade. These numbers show rapid decline. Internet, anyone?

Meanwhile, Sunday Assemblies are popping up........

Looks like my OP estimates may have been pretty conservative yet again.....


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## RobynC

Overall: Well there are a number of things that I've noticed: Corporations and government have become love-mates and often work together to use their own capabilities to best violate the public's rights.

Some of this is clearly technological, but some if it is just the fact that the people in power don't feel like following the law and just doing whatever the fuck they want.


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## RobynC

Amine said:


> This therapist simulation program can already read its patients' body language and give helpful advice:


Could this pass the Turing test?


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## Amine

RobynC said:


> Could this pass the Turing test?


Nope.


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## Amine

https://www.linkedin.com/today/post...things-far-bigger-than-anyone-realizes-part-1
https://www.linkedin.com/today/post...things-far-bigger-than-anyone-realizes-part-2

The data revolution...

Data is exploding right now like never before. I can't remember exact stats, but we now generate more data in 1 day than we used to in, I dunno, all of human civilization up to the birth of the internet. 

If you think that isn't going to change anything, you're completely asleep. This is going to be huge. I truly feel like those people in Deep Impact watching the wave coming at them.

Everything is rapidly falling under our control. Data is synonymous with predictive power. Predictive power means not only do we avoid mishaps, but we deliver everything exactly where it needs to be, when it needs to be there ( @Eckis, you silly doubter you). Roughly 30 billion devices will be connected to the internet of things by 2020. And it will grow exponentially from there. Data is *exploding *into existence right now.

My biggest fascination is what this will mean for health. Sensors will not be limited to objects. Don't think we won't be real-time-tracking our own bodies as well, optimizing their performance and snagging problems _long_ before they ever become serious. Peter Diamandis recently joined the group of people who have had RFID tags implanted in their bodies. Ignoring, for the moment, paranoia based dystopian scenarios, this is going to enable possibilities like real-time tracking of blood nutrient levels, for one. The actual numbers of people not getting the right amounts of vitamins and minerals is shocking (especially considering the lack of DNA-based personalization we are offered by current dietary recommendations). That reduces our performance, but it could be a problem of the past within years.

But still, that's only the beginning. What will it mean when there is a constant stream of data about things like our emotions? Computers will be tracking our sweat, our heart rates, our eye movements, our facial musculature... as we do everything we do. It will know how we react to everything. This sort of thing can not only enable stuff like smart-therapy and educational optimization, but it will deliver _unbelievable_ levels of personalization to all of your experiences. For instance, right now you spend some of your time watching TV and youtube and reading tweets and forum posts and such. But a sea of data is going unused. If your full-spread of emotions and physiological responses were being monitored, there would be knowledge about how much or little you got out of everything you watched or read, and the recommendations it would deliver in return would be nothing short of perfection. It could even do things like assemble highlight reels of your own video-life-log stream based on people's reactions to certain parts. The possibilities are endless, I can't even scratch the surface...


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## Amine

Someone else's take:



> I want you to imagine a world where there are sensors literally everywhere. In such a world computers could work out correlations of cause and effect among objects that are beyond any single human's ability to track... and comprehend, in some cases. Now imagine an app that taps into that, that offers cryptic bits of advice like, "At 6:00pm go to such and so park and take your drum with you." It just so happens that 3 other people also play a drum, and show up more or less at that time; and your chance of running into them there is high.
> 
> How can it do that? See this:
> 
> Do You Know Where You’ll Be 285 Days From Now At 2 P.M.? These Data-Masters Do | Fast Company | Business + Innovation
> 
> Or imagine the app says, "Go to such and so grocery store at 5:30." It just so happens the computer knows you like fresh salmon; knows that a truck is scheduled to deliver some at 4:00pm; and knows it will take a little more than an hour for the grocer to put it in the display case.
> 
> Or maybe the computer arranges magical experiences that enrich your life. For instance, maybe it tells you to drive to a particular baseball field *right now*. You get there, see a light rain, and then a rainbow forms just then. Another possibility: it tells you, "Climb to the top of such and so building at precisely 3:00pm." You do, and see an enormous wave of migratory birds that are just due to arrive; but no one has noticed before that they always stop at that building first, before continuing their journey -- the grandeur of seeing all those birds is beyond words.
> 
> And how can it do that? It can tap in to a vast array of analytics programs and sensor networks available online. For example, about rainbows:
> 
> Rainbow Alerts - Rainbow Prediction Map
> 
> And about bird forecasting:
> 
> Forecasts : BirdCast
> 
> You could also travel anywhere in the world once ultra-cheap webcams are installed everywhere; and all these images could be stitched together to produce 3D renderings that you can explore using VR glasses. Did you leave that book at the office? Put on those glasses, and dial in to your office's location, and see for yourself.
> 
> Time travel, of a sort, becomes possible: want to see a dead relative one last time? Dial in the space-time coordinates to the next-next-next-gen version of Google Earth, put on your VR glasses, and you can see exactly as they were some particular day (assuming they have video streams and recordings from inside their homes; given how cheap storage will be, and how easy it will be to do this, I think people might start recording their lives). You might even be able to walk outside their house in the virtual recreation of that day, and see what the sun looked like... the trees... the cars... everything.
> 
> You could travel to Antarctica; to the deepest caves; the highest mountains; and the most desolate deserts of the Earth.
> 
> And you won't even be constrained by scale: you could view your back yard from an ant's perspective, for example.
> 
> Need to make repairs to your roof? Send up a tiny teleprescence robot. It can caulk leak-holes.
> 
> And this doesn't even take into account the repercussions of advanced Intelligent Virtual Assistants and Agents. Among other things, they will be able to summarize video, using the latest in Deep Learning and neural networks -- e.g. the next-generation of developments like this:
> 
> [1411.4389] Long-term Recurrent Convolutional Networks for Visual Recognition and Description
> 
> Imagine a home security system that can give you summaries of what happened during the day: "Nothing much happened. At around 10:00am a dog walked to your door, scratched it, and then walked away. And then around 2:00pm a deliveryman showed up with a package. He knocked on your front door, and then left." Or imagine a mother wants to keep track of her little girl's day: she attaches a tiny camera to her child's coat, and then it records the day, and gives summaries of what is happening (delivered via smartphone app) or happened that day.
> 
> Crime will become increasingly difficult with facial recognition and video understanding.
> 
> People will get instant summaries of everything happening in the world. Want to know what happened at Times Square in New York in the past day? A video-to-text system could tell you everything you want to know.
> 
> Natural Language Understanding, combined with cloud computing and access to sensor networks, could enable you to interact with personal assistants at this level of sophistication:
> 
> -+-+-+
> 
> Me: I'm supposed to give a talk in Hawaii in a couple weeks. Could you book me a flight?
> 
> Computer: I see that you are listed as a guest speaker at a conference on December 12 in Honolulu. Is that the conference?
> 
> Me: Yes; but I plan to arrive about 5 days early to do some sight-seeing.
> 
> Computer: Okay. I see there's a flight in to Honolulu on December 6 that's a pretty good deal, and on American Airlines -- I take it you don't want to try Delta, after your recent complaints. Is this okay with you?
> 
> Me: Yes, it is. I hear there's a good rate on a Holiday Inn. Why don't you look into discounts.
> 
> Computer: I see the conference website has listed a contact number for discounts to Holiday Inn. I'll use that, then. Ok, so I have you arriving on the 6th, staying at a Holiday Inn for 2 weeks, until the end of the conference. Is that correct?
> 
> Me: Make that three weeks.
> 
> Computer: Done. Ok, here is your tentative itinerary:....
> 
> -+-+-+
> 
> Hate filling out taxes? No need to bother -- your virtual assistant will know about all your income sources, physical and virtual assets, expenditures, debts, losses, and all the deductions you qualify for. In principle, it could fill out your taxes for you, once the A.I. gets advanced enough.
> 
> Want to know where a package you ordered is located? You will be able to track it almost to the meter.
> 
> With sensors embedded in your body, you will know all your vital stats -- heart rate and rhythm, blood pressure, blood glucose level, hormone levels, temperature, stress levels; everything. You will never have a heart attack or stroke without warning. You will know what foods to eat when, to maximize your health. You will know exactly what effect certain kinds of exercise have on your health.
> 
> Logistics and infrastructure will become much more efficient. Energy needs will be predicted almost precisely for how to heat or cool buildings, saving huge amounts of money and carbon emissions.
> 
> Scientists will be able to track the health of forests and animals with ease, using autonomous quadcopters, equipped with video recognition systems.
> 
> Swarms of quadcopters overhead will monitor cities from above; and there will be live versions of programs like Google Maps, that show you everything everywhere, down to the inch, this very second.
> 
> And imagine the impact of sensors and AI in the developing world:
> 
> * It can help gauge crop yields; and warn of impending drought.
> 
> * It can be used to point out where well-water is hiding under the ground (using satellite imagery).
> 
> * It can help people locate places where fish are plentiful (using satellite and other data) .
> 
> * It can help diagnose diseases before they get out of hand, using small sensors; and suggest ways to stay healthy.
> 
> * It can warn people of potential political crises; it could warn that such and so potential leader will become a warlord (by revealing past history); it could help people share information about leaders.
> 
> * It can teach people how to build their own simple water purifiers -- which, although not as good as commercial versions, would still be better than nothing.
> 
> * A simple sensor could tell whether the water people are drinking is poisonous or not -- e.g. whether it contains heavy metals.
> 
> * Image recognition could identify wild plants that may be edible (if they didn't already know).
> 
> * Big Data could locate relatively cheap plots of land that people could settle on.
> 
> * Virtual personal assistants could educate people, if and when their lives become more settled.
> 
> * It could reduce the amount of theft and corruption.
> 
> * It could help people locate others who have something to exchange -- e.g. maybe a farmer needs fertilizer, but has extra farm tools; another farmer may have fertilizer, but no farm tools. Currently, they might not know about each other, simply because there is no way to exchange that information easily.
> 
> * The machine could also make a quick assessment of the person and their environment, and conclude, "You're better off joining a caravan and traveling 50 miles to the South where you will have many more opportunities." Easier said than done, I know, if one has a family and lots of strong community ties.
> 
> * Using image recognition: "See that plant? Cut it up; put it in water; and boil it. The fumes will keep the insects away."
> 
> * "See that tree? Its sap makes a good caulking substance for your house."
> 
> * "Here's how to make a solar oven to cook with..."
> 
> * It could help people repair small electronics items like radios and TVs.
> 
> * It could teach them basic First Aid during an emergency. It might even be able to identify medicinal plants -- "See that plant? It's an anti-biotic."
> 
> * It could translate from one language to another, so that people in neighboring villages can understand them.
> 
> * It could warn of impending floods and mud-slides.
> 
> * It could show how to build the simplest of dwellings, using the least material and labor.
> 
> * Systems like the Matternet could enable people to send life-saving medicines to remote locations by quadcopter. Packages could also be sent this way, even in first world countries.


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