# Framing effect



## akaskar (Nov 13, 2012)

I beg that only NTs answer this poll. Similar poll is found in SF forum, if you are one.

Imagine that the U.S. is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian disease, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative programs to combat the disease have been proposed. Assume the exact scientific estimate of the consequences of the programs are as follows:

A: Program A: "200 people will be saved"
B: Program B: "there is a one-third probability that 600 people will be saved, and a two-thirds probability that no people will be saved



Tversky and Kahneman (1981)


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## L (Aug 12, 2011)

Sorry for those unlucky 200 that might not make it, but, I'd go for it. I'd try and save everyone.

That's my decision under your parameters.

So what does


> Tversky and Kahneman (1981)


 say about me?


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## DiamondDays (Sep 4, 2012)

The potential of saving more people in option B is not large enough to justify taking the risk IMO. Better play it safe.


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## The Alternate (Jan 14, 2013)

Is there anything we can do to bring option B higher? I know you said _"Assume the exact scientific estimate" _but that is hard to do in this case. I feel like if it's already 33% likely to save 3x as many people, then it is inherinently more efficient and should be explored further to make sure it doesn't fail in practice.


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## bluekitdon (Dec 19, 2012)

I'd look at a combination of both programs and try to come up with a better solution. How are you guaranteeing 200 people would be saved in A? Why do you think you can possibly save everyone in B?

If these are absolutes and all the work above has been done, then statistically speaking you have a 67% chance that everyone is going to die in scenario B, and 100% chance that you'll save 200 people in A. I like my odds of saving 200 people a lot better, I'd run with A and try to come up with a way to boost that number. 

Even better, is there a way to run both programs together? Save the 200 people you know you can save in A (you did say you were 100% sure, so you probably know who is likely to respond to A) & give the rest a 33% chance of survival using program B.


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## KINGJADEX (Jan 27, 2012)

akaskar said:


> Imagine that the U.S. is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian disease, which is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative programs to combat the disease have been proposed. Assume the exact scientific estimate of the consequences of the programs are as follows:
> 
> A: Program A: "200 people will be saved"
> B: Program B: "there is a one-third probability that 600 people will be saved, and a two-thirds probability that no people will be saved


You've stated this wrong, if you're going for the Framing Effect, Program B should say "There's a two-thirds possibility of all 600 people dying". That's all.


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## Strat19 (May 15, 2011)

E(A)=E(B), doesn't matter


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## akaskar (Nov 13, 2012)

Not so fast=) There is going to be another poll for that=)


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## akaskar (Nov 13, 2012)

Personally, I'd go for the 2nd, because I think that it's unfair that different people under same circumstances get different fates.


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## KINGJADEX (Jan 27, 2012)

akaskar said:


> Not so fast=) There is going to be another poll for that=)


Were you replying to me?


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## Raichu (Aug 24, 2012)

Program A. If I picked B and 600 people died-- which, odds are, they would-- that'd be 200 people dead that I could have saved.

Because if you look at it another way,
Program A: 400 people die.
Program B: 66% chance that 600 people die.

Not worth the risk.


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## akaskar (Nov 13, 2012)

KINGJADEX said:


> Were you replying to me?


yeah


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## elixare (Aug 26, 2010)

Same expected value. Makes no difference which choice you take. I'd flip a coin.


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## Hikikomori (Feb 14, 2013)

Program B, with the nefarious hope that no one survives. Nya haha.


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## runnerveran (Dec 19, 2011)

Flip a coin.


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## SPtheGhost (Apr 26, 2010)

2/3 chance of killing everyone isnt worth it 

A gives a 1/1 chance of saving lives


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## TheProcrastinatingMaster (Jun 4, 2012)

Program A, 600 just isn't enough, if it were a thousand I'd go with Program B. Otherwise, no, Program A.


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## Rayos (Mar 28, 2012)

I was going to go with Program B since it seemed like the more interesting option, plus everyone could come out alive. But then I remembered that I was dealing with human lives so it would be very bad if everyone died, worse than the potential good that could be done by saving everyone. So, I went with the option that had the highest chance of success, Program A.


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## Kips (Jul 10, 2012)

Assuming an isolated and close-knit population, option B is way better (with good meaning the greatest good for the greatest number), because with option A 200 people will be missing their loved ones, while with option B they'll all be dead or they'll all be happy.

Edit: Also, I think losing 66% of the population would be very destabilising. It would be very hard for the remaining ones to survive. Unless it'll kill the weakest 400, then it might evolutionary be a good thing.


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## L (Aug 12, 2011)

I thought of it like this: we have no way of knowing what 200 will be saved, we have no way of knowing why this treatment will save only 200 people and why option B only has a 33% success rate. The fact that option A has a guaranteed success rate for 200 people is pretty much the same to me as a 33% success rate to save everyone. Finally, I would feel like I'm giving up on those other 400 people, they're absolutely fucked with no hope.

If option B fails then it would suck, but, I'm going to deal with the deaths of 400 people if I choose option A. There will be a number of people that would congratulate me on that, I saved 200 people, but, it's in my system to think only of the 400 that I gave up on. I couldn't do it, I would rather fail and accept the hatred of everyone if I fail rather than accept praise that I feel like I didn't deserve for failing 400 people. 

That was my thought process.


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